CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001)

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter a copy of the entire notification here:
Estimate issued Fri Jun 19 22:10:22 UTC 2015

View full results at http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027
=================================Earth===================================

Earth (summary, more details follow below):
Number_of_hits_Earth=48
Number_of_miss_Earth= 0
Percentage_hits_Earth=100.00%
Earliest 2015-06-22T05:54
Average  2015-06-22T13:43
Latest   2015-06-22T22:13
Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max   =           3            3            5
Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max=           4            5            7
Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max=           5            5            7
Kp_all_min,Kp_all_avg,Kp_all_max=           3            5            7
Kp_all_weighted min, avg, max   =           3            4            7
Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all=    0.49     0.58     0.58     1.05
====Kp90,135,180 probability of occurrence histogram (%)
         0         0        19        75         6         0         0         0         0
         0         0         0         2        50        46         2         0         0
         0         0         0         0        19        67        15         0         0
====Kp all clock angles (equal weights)
         0         0         6        26        25        38         6         0         0
====Kp all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1)
         0         0         5        20        31        40         5         0         0
Kp bins  1         2         3         4         5         6         7         8         9
==========================================================================================
....................................... FLOATING POINT ...................................
Kp_90fp_min,Kp_90fp_avg,Kp_90fp_max   =     3.2      3.9      4.9
Kp_135fp_min,Kp_135fp_avg,Kp_135fp_max=     4.5      5.5      6.5
Kp_180fp_min,Kp_180fp_avg,Kp_180fp_max=     4.9      6.0      7.0
Kp_allfp_min,Kp_allfp_avg,Kp_allfp_max=     3.2      5.1      7.0
Kp_allfp_weighted min, avg, max       =     3.2      4.2      7.0
Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all fp   =    0.42     0.53     0.54     1.00
====kp90,135,180 FP probability of occurrence histogram (%)
         0         0        54        46         0         0         0         0         0
         0         0         0        19        67        15         0         0         0
         0         0         0         2        50        46         2         0         0
====Kp FP all clock angles (equal weights)
         0         0        18        22        39        20         1         0         0
====Kp FP all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1)
         0         0        14        21        46        19         1         0         0
Kp bins  1         2         3         4         5         6         7         8         9
==========================================================================================
Duration_min= 23.1 h
Duration_avg= 26.6 h
Duration_max=125.9 h
Standard deviation=14.7 h
mp_standoff_min= 5.4 Re
mp_standoff_avg= 5.9 Re
mp_standoff_max= 6.4 Re
Standard deviation= 0.3 Re

Earth results for median input parameters:
Arrival time     maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs)
2015-06-22T12:42          4 6 6       5.8         24.0

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_anim_tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_anim_tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Earth_stack.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_arrival_Earth.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif

===========================other locations===============================

Spitzer:
Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0
Number_of_miss_Spitz=48
Percentage_hits_Spitz= 0%
No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Spitz_stack.gif

STEREO A:
Number_of_hits_STA= 0
Number_of_miss_STA=48
Percentage_hits_STA= 0%
No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_STA_stack.gif

STEREO B:
Number_of_hits_STB= 0
Number_of_miss_STB=48
Percentage_hits_STB= 0%
No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_STB_stack.gif

Mars:
Number_of_hits_Mars= 0
Number_of_miss_Mars=48
Percentage_hits_Mars= 0%
No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Mars or the impact is weak
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Mars_stack.gif

=======================================
### Notification information (missions near Earth)

.... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 48 ensemble members (see notes section), 48 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2015-06-22T05:54Z and 2015-06-22T22:13Z (average arrival 2015-06-22T13:43Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 57% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_anim_tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_arrival_Earth.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_Earth_stack.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2015-06-19_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027/Detailed_results_20150619_141300_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX027.txt
###

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy